How would you estimate the market for electric two-wheelers in India?
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Reveal model answer & level guide
I would build it top-down and sanity-check it bottom-up. Top-down: total two-wheeler sales in India per year, the share that is electric today, and a penetration path driven by price parity, charging access, and policy. Bottom-up: households in the target income bands in the cities where charging is viable, replacement cycle, and realistic conversion. I would state my assumptions as I go so the interviewer can redirect me. The strongest answers end by naming which single assumption the estimate is most sensitive to.
- Entry
- Reach a number with a stated method.
- Mid
- Build it top-down and sanity-check bottom-up, stating assumptions as you go.
- Senior
- Name the assumption the estimate is most sensitive to, and what would change the answer.